LTE subscribers to boom to 32M in 2013

There will be over 32 million subscribers using Long Term Evolution (LTE) networks by 2013, just three years after it is expected to go commercial, forecasts ABI Research. Three of the largest mobile operators—China Mobile, Vodafone and Verizon Wireless—have announced plans to adopt LTE.

Asia Pacific will account for the largest regional share. "ABI Research anticipates about 12 million Asia-Pacific LTE network subscribers in 2013," says senior analyst Nadine Manjaro. "The remainder will be split about 60-40 percent between Western Europe and North America"

Moreover, LTE commitments from NTT DoCoMo and KDDI in Japan are said to further boost adoption.

The long wait for the China government to issue 3G licenses may also become a factor driving LTE in that country.

"It wouldn't surprise me to see some operators skip over 3G and go straight to LTE," says Manjaro. "Although China's own TD-SCDMA 3G technology will be deployed on a small scale during the [Beijing] Olympics, I can't see operators spending billions to implement that or any other 3G technology if they will just have to upgrade within a year or two."

Since LTE deployment involves new hardware and software, several industry sectors stand to benefit. Before 2010, it will be vendors of the test equipment used to ensure network interoperability and performance. Next will come vendors of the required network infrastructure equipment itself. Finally, it will be device manufacturers.

Because LTE is primarily about data, not voice, its first phase will see devices such as USB dongles for PCs: ABI estimates 53 million to ship by 2013. Because LTE will compete directly with cable and DSL services, in-home modems will also see volume shipments, as will mobile Internet devices and ultramobile PCs. Manjaro calls the device market "a huge opportunity."